ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this figure in its October 2026 regional economic update. The organization used the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms to measure poverty. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making it the main contributor to the rise in extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together comprise another 47% of the region’s population living below the $3 poverty line. Alongside Pakistan, these three nations represent roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, about 14% of the global population experiencing extreme poverty resides in this region, which is surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels have not only persisted but also continued to grow beyond pre-pandemic figures.
At a higher threshold of $4.20 daily, used to classify lower-middle-income economies, Pakistan’s poverty rate also worsened. The percentage of people living below this level increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25, reaching approximately 48% in 2024 compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional assessment attributes this decline to multiple shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, inflation, currency depreciation, and prolonged economic adjustments. These factors are cited as key drivers behind Pakistan’s worsening poverty metrics.
Economic shocks have intensified poverty levels over recent years
Earlier in 2026, new household survey data prompted significant revisions to regional poverty estimates. The updated figures increased MENAAP’s 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%, adding roughly 21 million people to the region’s total count of those living in extreme poverty. By September 2026, MENAAP was one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, the other being Sub-Saharan Africa.
Despite a return to positive economic growth, Pakistan’s poverty levels remain high. The latest projections estimate GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027, meaning inflation is expected to surpass the previous year’s estimate despite ongoing economic expansion.
Classification changes influence regional poverty comparisons
The 48% share also reflects a statistical adjustment that altered regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank’s classification system moved Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. According to Pakistan’s government, this administrative change did not affect the country’s geographic identity or income classification. However, Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the new grouping affected regional poverty data because Pakistan’s large population was incorporated into MENAAP calculations, thereby impacting the presentation of regional poverty shares.
The October update also highlighted deteriorating economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026. It projected a regional contraction of 2.1% following a 3.3% growth in 2025. Various economies faced challenges from conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade. While developing oil-importing countries like Pakistan showed relative resilience, with an estimated growth of 4.3% in 2026, rising food and energy costs continued to squeeze household purchasing power throughout several nations.